Composite Index of Business Conditions: Leading Index Leading
Agency：Cabinet Office
117.7↑
Month 2026-07 ・ MoM +1.29% ・ YoY +10.93%
Growth strengthening
Indicators
Leading signals
Indicators that tend to move ahead of the business cycle, such as those classified as leading series in the Cabinet Office's Indexes of Business Conditions
Composite Index of Business Conditions: Coincident Index Coincident
Agency：Cabinet Office
120.6↑
Month 2026-07 ・ MoM +1.43% ・ YoY +4.96%
Growth strengthening
Machinery Orders (private sector excl. ships and electric power, seasonally adjusted)
Agency：Cabinet Office
10168.8↓
Month 2026-07 ・ MoM -3.68% ・ YoY +12.19%
Growth weakening
Floor Area of New Housing Starts (seasonally adjusted) Leading
Agency：Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
4801↓
Month 2026-08 ・ MoM -3.38% ・ YoY +4.85%
Growth strengthening
New Housing Starts (units, seasonally adjusted)
Agency：Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
62759↓
Month 2026-08 ・ MoM -2.69% ・ YoY +5.32%
Growth strengthening
Production
Volume of manufacturing output, moving with the business cycle
Industrial Production Index (seasonally adjusted) Coincident
Agency：Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
104.4→
Month 2026-07 ・ MoM -0.19% ・ YoY +3.88%
Growth strengthening
Consumption and prices
Household spending and prices, which often lag the business cycle
Consumer Price Index (all items less fresh food, seasonally adjusted) Lagging
Agency：Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
102→
Month 2026-08 ・ MoM +0.10% ・ YoY +1.69%
Growth strengthening
Family Income and Expenditure Survey: Consumption Expenditures (two-or-more-person households, nominal)
Agency：Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
301245↑
Month 2026-07 ・ MoM +3.56% ・ YoY -1.46%
Decline deepening
Current Survey of Commerce: Retail Sales Index (seasonally adjusted) Coincident
Agency：Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
118.5↑
Month 2026-07 ・ MoM +2.07% ・ YoY +3.67%
Growth strengthening
Business sentiment
How people on the front lines feel about the economy, which can show up before official figures
Economy Watchers Survey: Current Conditions DI (seasonally adjusted)
Agency：Cabinet Office
46.4↑
Month 2026-08 ・ Month-on-month difference +0.70 pt ・ Year-on-year difference -0.30 pt
Decline easing
Economy Watchers Survey: Future Conditions DI (seasonally adjusted)
Agency：Cabinet Office
48.3↑
Month 2026-08 ・ Month-on-month difference +2.50 pt ・ Year-on-year difference +0.70 pt
Decline easing