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Leading and coincident indexes of business conditions
Question:How do the leading and coincident indexes move relative to each other?
Period:
Points to note (from the publishers' descriptions)
- The Cabinet Office explains that "the leading index generally leads the coincident index by several months" (Cabinet Office, Guide to the Indexes of Business Conditions; translated by FirstRelease Japan). (Source)
- The same guide states that "generally, when the CI coincident index is rising the economy is in an expansion phase, and when it is falling it is in a contraction phase" (translated by FirstRelease Japan). (Source)
- This page compares year-on-year changes rather than levels, and also shows their difference (both calculated by FirstRelease Japan; the difference is not a Cabinet Office definition). The published values themselves are on each indicator's page.
Series shown and sources
- Composite Index of Business Conditions: Leading Index Leading・Source: Cabinet Office, "Indexes of Business Conditions"(Terms of use)
- Composite Index of Business Conditions: Coincident Index Coincident・Source: Cabinet Office, "Indexes of Business Conditions"(Terms of use)
Processing:Year-on-year changes are calculated by FirstRelease Japan from each seasonally adjusted series. The gap is the difference between the year-on-year changes of two series from the same published file, calculated by FirstRelease Japan. It is not a publisher's definition
Stock prices and stock indices are not shown.